Friday, January 29, 2010

Oh, it's an iPad.

OK, it is iPad! You can make fun of the name. But this device will indeed be revolutionary. I call it a digital Gutenberg. Yes, digital Gutenberg!

One big surprise is the low price points of the device, as low as $500 for the 16G Wifi model. Many has expected it to be close to $1000.

Apple is notorious for its expensive laptops and Macs. Why Apple set such a low price point for this revolutionary product (not too much more expensive than those junk netbooks)? Steve Jobs said it loud and clear: we want to get this product to as many people as possible.

The iPad is a Trojan horse. Apple is not going to make a lot of money selling the iPads. I figure that they are barely break-even after counting the production and distribution costs.

So where is the beef? I think it is in the eBooks, eNewspapers, eMagazines, and games, and yes, mobile advertising that can be exploited here. Apple gets 30% cut of all the things sold through iTunes, AppStore, and eBookStore. More over, once the volume reaches a critical mass, Apple will allow advertisers to dynamically place targeted ads in eBooks, eNewspapers, eMagazines and, of course games and other applications.

So clearly iPad is a Trojan horse. The hardware is not the key. It is the future Apps.

The eBook application is exciting. Imagine you have a book you want to publish and sell. You go to Random House. They tell you that you have to put $8M upfront for them to publish it for you. Where can you come up with the $8M?

Well, with ePub, you can publish your book for just a few hundred bucks, and then sell it through iPad's eBookStore! Wow, I am tempting to write a book now. Maybe I can sell a million copy and get rich quick :)

During the presentation, New York Times showcased its eNewpaper app specifically designed for iPad. I read a couple of newspapers and periodicals, such as FT, NYT, WP, WSJ, Economists, etc. When I travel, I don't want to carry them with me. Now I will just take the iPad.

For the newspaper companies, they will save printing, and distribution costs (so iPad is a very "green" product). It is not an exaggeration if I say iPad may save the entire newspaper and magazine industry!

Now you understand why I call iPad digital Gutenberg.

Extra: Qualcomm stock dropped more than $8 after Apple indicated that the iPad uses its in-house designed ARM chip (remember the PA Semi group Apple acquired a few years ago?). Unlike the x86 market, which is dominated by one single company Intel (I don't think AMD counts), the ARM world is fiercely competitive. Every single IC design house in the world has its own design. I doubt either Intel or Qualcomm is a good long term investment. Even Google is under treat if Apple can use iPad to dominate mobile advertising. Google has a hard time to translate its success in desktop advertising into the mobile market. I will stick with Apple.

Disclaimer: I own some shares of Apple's common stock. So take whatever I said with a grain of salt.

No comments: