As expected, Steve Jobs unveiled 3G iPhone during his keynote in WWDC 08. However, the phone wont be available until July 11.
Apple has abandoned revenue sharing arrangement with the wireless carriers and allow the carriers to subsidize iPhone. That is why the new iPhone will cost as less as $199 for the 8GB version. In contrast, an 8GB iPod Touch costs $299.
IPhone software 2.0 is the central piece of Apple's strategy. The support of third-party software developers is essential to the ultimate success of the iPhone platform. The reason why Microsoft Windows OS became a dominant platform is because the enormous independent software support. Apple is determined to foster such an independent software developers community for its iPhone platform. The PC war is over and Microsoft has won. But the war on mobile platform has just begun, and iPhone is pulling way ahead of the pack, despite its relative late entry.
Mobile platform can be HUGE. Many people in the developing world may ONLY use mobile phones to access the internet. I think MID (Mobile Internet Device) will be as big as PC. On the hardware side, the battle is between Intel's Atom (x86) and ARM's ARM core. On the software side (OS side), it may be between Google's Android and Apple's iPhone. Palm foolishly gave away its software control and solely relied on Microsoft's mobile platform (Palm spun out Palm OS to PalmSource which later was acquired by and withered in a Japanese mobile software company called ACCESS). RIM's blackberry is only an email platform, at current moment, and I would not be surprised it will adopt a similar strategy of Apple's. But it may be too late for RIM to catch up. Microsoft's mobile platform is pretty much dead, I believe.
I would use any pullback in Apple stock prices to buy more its shares.
Disclaimer: I own shares in Apple common stock.
Tuesday, June 10, 2008
Sunday, June 08, 2008
Clinton's concession speech
I watched Clinton's concession speech on youtube (you got to love the Internet). When she was talking about how much she has accomplished and thanking her supporters, her tone was full of excitement and emotion. But when she starts to talk about supporting Obama, her voice turns solemn and mechanical. I would still characterize her concession and support for Obama as lukewarm.
's
She made her entire campaign look like a movement about women's rights. I am glad that Obama did not make his look like one about civil rights or minority rights. When Clinton was saying all sorts of things about Obama, none of which was true, such as Obama was less qualified then she or McCain, and Obama was sexist, Obama did not respond in kind. Looking back, I really did not recall Obama said anything bad about Clinton throughout his campaign. Even when Clinton made that outrageous RFK assassination allusion, Obama did not clamor on and attack Clinton. Imagine if Obama made similar comment regarding Clinton, what Bill would say.
I am just glad the whole thing is over. With or without the support of hillbilly, Obama will prevail in November.
's
She made her entire campaign look like a movement about women's rights. I am glad that Obama did not make his look like one about civil rights or minority rights. When Clinton was saying all sorts of things about Obama, none of which was true, such as Obama was less qualified then she or McCain, and Obama was sexist, Obama did not respond in kind. Looking back, I really did not recall Obama said anything bad about Clinton throughout his campaign. Even when Clinton made that outrageous RFK assassination allusion, Obama did not clamor on and attack Clinton. Imagine if Obama made similar comment regarding Clinton, what Bill would say.
I am just glad the whole thing is over. With or without the support of hillbilly, Obama will prevail in November.
Saturday, June 07, 2008
Apple WWDC next week. I want my 3G iPhone
Next week, Apple will hold its annual WWDC in San Francisco. The rumor is that the 3G version of iPhone will be revealed. I think more exciting is the software 2.0 for iPhone. Third party software vendors can sell their software for iPhone directly on iPhone. Same functionality will also be available on iPod Touch. I am sure I will get an iPod touch. My son has been begging me so long. As for the iPhone, I have to wait for a few more months.
What other new products are in store for WWDC? We will find out soon.
What other new products are in store for WWDC? We will find out soon.
Tuesday, June 03, 2008
What should Hillary do next?
Tonight, the democratic primary is finished. It is obvious Obama will get the votes needed to clinch the party nomination. Hillary Clinton held a meeting with her supporters in New York. Still not willing to concede, she asked the crowd: what should I do now?
Hillary, I got some suggestions for you:
First, you should start praying, praying really hard. The month of June is a strange month, as you have pointed out before. Lots of strange things could happen. You never know. Pray. For the desired accident to happen. Obviously, you should pray to the devil in this case.
Second, in case the devil does not listen to your prayers, you have another option. Join the Republican party and run against McCain. You still have a chance to beat McCain. You have done more damage to the Democratic party than McCain did. You have smeared Obama's reputation more than McCain did. More right-wingers support you than McCain. You got Bill O'Reiley praising you every night. Ann Coulter promised to campaign for you. What you need to do is to switch to the Republican party. You style and your character fit that party very nicely anyway.
Lastly, in case this does not work either, you can ran for McCain's Veep. McCain can really use you to woo the support of the right-wingers. You have proven to be more credible to the neo-cons than McCain. You and Macky will be a dream pair made in hell.
Hillary, I got some suggestions for you:
First, you should start praying, praying really hard. The month of June is a strange month, as you have pointed out before. Lots of strange things could happen. You never know. Pray. For the desired accident to happen. Obviously, you should pray to the devil in this case.
Second, in case the devil does not listen to your prayers, you have another option. Join the Republican party and run against McCain. You still have a chance to beat McCain. You have done more damage to the Democratic party than McCain did. You have smeared Obama's reputation more than McCain did. More right-wingers support you than McCain. You got Bill O'Reiley praising you every night. Ann Coulter promised to campaign for you. What you need to do is to switch to the Republican party. You style and your character fit that party very nicely anyway.
Lastly, in case this does not work either, you can ran for McCain's Veep. McCain can really use you to woo the support of the right-wingers. You have proven to be more credible to the neo-cons than McCain. You and Macky will be a dream pair made in hell.
Monday, June 02, 2008
Economics of public transportation
A few weeks ago, the Walls Street Journal editorial ran a commentary criticizing government support of public transportation. (Given the reputation of WSJ's editorial board, I am not surprised by its view). One of the chief reasons WSJ did not like public transportation is that the business of public transportation has never been profitable on its own. Public transportation always requires government subsidies. That is true in Europe, and probably also true in Japan and China.
But is profit the only measure we should use here? From the microscopic level, considering only the economics of public transportation as a business, I agree that public transportation is not a good "business". But it does not mean it is not a good public policy to support it.
If you look from the societal level (macroscopic level), the picture is more positive. The cost of public transportation is obvious, government subsidies. But the benefits of public transportation cannot be ignored. First and foremost, it reduces the society's aggregate consumption of energy. More people uses public transportation, less money will be spent to import oil from the middle east. Yes, the government has to spend money to subsidize public transportation. But the money spent by the government remains in this country, creating jobs, and producing income multiplying effect on the economy. Otherwise, the money would have been spent to import oil/energy from foreign countries anyway. That money does not create any job in this country, and does not stimulate domestic economy.
Now is a great time to encourage public transportation and wean the nation off the dependence of foreign oil. Consumers are already cutting back personal driving, and looking for alternative transportation options. We need the government on all levels to lend its support for building a better public transportation infrastructure and implementing sound long term policy to incentivize the public to take public means of transportation. And in a long run, as ridership rises, public transportation may indeed become a profitable business on its own right, without requiring government subsidies.
But is profit the only measure we should use here? From the microscopic level, considering only the economics of public transportation as a business, I agree that public transportation is not a good "business". But it does not mean it is not a good public policy to support it.
If you look from the societal level (macroscopic level), the picture is more positive. The cost of public transportation is obvious, government subsidies. But the benefits of public transportation cannot be ignored. First and foremost, it reduces the society's aggregate consumption of energy. More people uses public transportation, less money will be spent to import oil from the middle east. Yes, the government has to spend money to subsidize public transportation. But the money spent by the government remains in this country, creating jobs, and producing income multiplying effect on the economy. Otherwise, the money would have been spent to import oil/energy from foreign countries anyway. That money does not create any job in this country, and does not stimulate domestic economy.
Now is a great time to encourage public transportation and wean the nation off the dependence of foreign oil. Consumers are already cutting back personal driving, and looking for alternative transportation options. We need the government on all levels to lend its support for building a better public transportation infrastructure and implementing sound long term policy to incentivize the public to take public means of transportation. And in a long run, as ridership rises, public transportation may indeed become a profitable business on its own right, without requiring government subsidies.
Sunday, June 01, 2008
Big oil companies take advantage of high gas price
I watched a video yesterday on youtube, created by American Solutions, about high gas prices. At first, I thought this was another video complaining about high gas prices. After I finished watching, I realized this is just another propaganda war the energy industry is waging, to convince people that the solution to solving high gas prices is more drilling! I have a hunch, the American Solutions organization (www.americansolutions.com), is backed by the energy industry.
Let's take a look at the root causes of the current energy crisis, if we can call it a crisis. High gas prices are caused by high crude oil prices. Why have crude oil prices gone up some much since Bush took over the White House? "Experts" would tell you that it is caused by increasing demand for oil and decreasing supply of oil. But if you take a look at the demand, demand grew less than 3% per year during this period. Yes, supply has seen some disruption, due to Iraq war. And some oil fields are seeing the production of oil declining. But the true cause of high oil prices does not lie here. We should put the blame squarely on US central bank (the Fed) monetary policy. The Fed has been engaged in currency manipulation since 2001. It was the Fed's deliberate policy to devalue US dollar, by printing excessive amount of fresh paper money, thus lowering interest rates, at one time to an absurdly low level (1%), to fund expanding government spending to support two wars. Since 2001, the Fed has stopped reporting a very important indicator of monetary supply, M3. Because they were afraid that M3 would reveal the massive increase of money supply.
But the market is efficient. You cannot cheat the market. Since 2001, the value of US dollar has been in a free fall against major foreign currencies. Crude oil is priced in US dollar, as are all other traded commodities. When the value of US dollar goes down, naturally the prices of commodities go up.
On top of that, you have gotten the parasite Wall Street bankers, who used the easy money offered by the Fed to speculate on the commodities market. Not only oil prices have gone through the roof, so have the prices for gold, silver, corn, cotton, and any commodity that you can name. The argument that the rise of oil price was only caused by demand/supply imbalance is completely false. Instead of using US dollar to price oil, if you have used gold to price the crude oil, the prices have not gone up much at all!
So what's the solution to high oil prices?
First, stop the Fed! The Fed's monetary policy destroyed the savings of US middle-class. Those who are on fixed incomes, such as retirees, are hit the hardest. Prices everywhere have gone up. Some people start to have problem to even pay for food and utilities! If the Fed is allowed to continue the devaluing of the dollar, middle-class will be destroyed. The US will descended into a third-world country in a few years!
Second, we have to have a long-term energy policy that has substance more than politics. Energy conservation should be the central piece of the new policy! Per capita energy consumption in the US is ten times higher than in India and China. We Americans cannot go on like this. I do not blame the US consumers. The Blame lies on the government, whose policy is NOT driven by public interest, BUT BY THE INTEREST of the energy companies, the automobile industry.
Public transportation is almost non-existent in the US, because the government does not support it. Highways and roads were built for individual automobiles, not for buses loading and off-loading passengers. Railways are limited. Building were built with the mandate to offer ample parking for individual cars.Every government policy here, including the highway bill, is to encourage individual driving and discourage mass transportation! Automobile industry and the energy industry were the primary beneficiaries of the policy. (Even with the support the government, the US auto industry is still failing. I predict in not so distant future, the US auto industry will be completely gone, ceding to the Asians and Europeans, just like the textile and electronic industries).
Let's take a look at the root causes of the current energy crisis, if we can call it a crisis. High gas prices are caused by high crude oil prices. Why have crude oil prices gone up some much since Bush took over the White House? "Experts" would tell you that it is caused by increasing demand for oil and decreasing supply of oil. But if you take a look at the demand, demand grew less than 3% per year during this period. Yes, supply has seen some disruption, due to Iraq war. And some oil fields are seeing the production of oil declining. But the true cause of high oil prices does not lie here. We should put the blame squarely on US central bank (the Fed) monetary policy. The Fed has been engaged in currency manipulation since 2001. It was the Fed's deliberate policy to devalue US dollar, by printing excessive amount of fresh paper money, thus lowering interest rates, at one time to an absurdly low level (1%), to fund expanding government spending to support two wars. Since 2001, the Fed has stopped reporting a very important indicator of monetary supply, M3. Because they were afraid that M3 would reveal the massive increase of money supply.
But the market is efficient. You cannot cheat the market. Since 2001, the value of US dollar has been in a free fall against major foreign currencies. Crude oil is priced in US dollar, as are all other traded commodities. When the value of US dollar goes down, naturally the prices of commodities go up.
On top of that, you have gotten the parasite Wall Street bankers, who used the easy money offered by the Fed to speculate on the commodities market. Not only oil prices have gone through the roof, so have the prices for gold, silver, corn, cotton, and any commodity that you can name. The argument that the rise of oil price was only caused by demand/supply imbalance is completely false. Instead of using US dollar to price oil, if you have used gold to price the crude oil, the prices have not gone up much at all!
So what's the solution to high oil prices?
First, stop the Fed! The Fed's monetary policy destroyed the savings of US middle-class. Those who are on fixed incomes, such as retirees, are hit the hardest. Prices everywhere have gone up. Some people start to have problem to even pay for food and utilities! If the Fed is allowed to continue the devaluing of the dollar, middle-class will be destroyed. The US will descended into a third-world country in a few years!
Second, we have to have a long-term energy policy that has substance more than politics. Energy conservation should be the central piece of the new policy! Per capita energy consumption in the US is ten times higher than in India and China. We Americans cannot go on like this. I do not blame the US consumers. The Blame lies on the government, whose policy is NOT driven by public interest, BUT BY THE INTEREST of the energy companies, the automobile industry.
Public transportation is almost non-existent in the US, because the government does not support it. Highways and roads were built for individual automobiles, not for buses loading and off-loading passengers. Railways are limited. Building were built with the mandate to offer ample parking for individual cars.Every government policy here, including the highway bill, is to encourage individual driving and discourage mass transportation! Automobile industry and the energy industry were the primary beneficiaries of the policy. (Even with the support the government, the US auto industry is still failing. I predict in not so distant future, the US auto industry will be completely gone, ceding to the Asians and Europeans, just like the textile and electronic industries).
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