Tuesday, February 10, 2009

Who are against the stimulus plan?

There are three groups of people who are against the economic stimulus plan:
The first group are the ideologues. These people are inherently against any form of government intervention. They stick to their ideology and dogma, refuse to consider facts and practical matters. They are like the pharisees in Jesus time, who were against doing anything on sabbath day, even rescuing someone from drowning.

The second group are the short seller. They have a lot to gain financially if the economy continues to flounder and stock market languish. They bet against US economy, equities, mortgage debts, and US financial assets. These people care nothing else other than money. They have no ethics, no moral, no trace of human decency.

The third group are idiots, who knows nothing about economics or anything. They are simply against anything supported by Obama or the Democrats.

Any reasonable person would realize that it is imperative that the US government pass an economic stimulus plan.

Demand is shrinking. Initially the decline in demand was justified, because people over spent in the past few years. But now the decline in demand is spiraling down out of control, not because of the financial health of US household, but because of pure fear and lack of confidence. Because of the shrinking demand, businesses are cutting back production capacity and laying off massive number of workers. The massive job losses are further crimping demand and consumption. The vicious cycle is feeding on itself. If nothing is done to increase demand, stop factory closings, and stem the job loss, we will definitely go into a sustained period of depression.

In this case, one obviously would prefer businesses/private sector to step up, increase investment, stimulate demand and create jobs. But that is not happening. The private sector is holding backing, quite understandably. They are not willing to take risk to invest, not knowing when the economy would improve.

Given this reality, government HAS to step in, to increase demand for goods and services. With increasing demand, businesses will stop closing factories and laying off people. Then gradually consumer confidence will be restored. A normalized demand level will be established. Once demand stabilizes, business confidence will be restored. Risking taking and private investment will come back. New jobs will be created. As a result, consumer confidence will rise. Then demand will further improve, and the loop of positive feedback will result in gradual recovery of the economy.

At which point, the government stimulus can be removed. Increased tax revenue can be used to pay down the debt borrowed for the stimulus spending.

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