Saturday, February 14, 2009

Is subprime mortgage problem really the cause of current financial crisis?

I have come to the realization that subprime mortgage problem was just the trigger, not the true cause of the current financial meltdown.

Consider this analogy: there was a man smoking in a theater full of people (back in those old days when smoking was still allowed inside). He inadvertently burned his pants with his cigarette. The lady next to him shouted: "fire!". Then the next a few other also shouted: "fire!". some people started to run for the door. People in the back did not know what was happening, but heard "fire". Then they all started to run for the door. That created a stampede, and people pushed each other trying to get to the door. Children were crying, and ladies screaming. The theater door collapsed, many injured, and some even killed by the stampede.

This is what is happening now in the global financial system. The "fire" here was the subprime mortgages. But it was a small fire that could have been put out easily. The people who first called out the problem was right. Indeed we had a serious problem with the bad assets in subprime mortgages that the banks and financial institutions are holding on their balance sheet. But the scope of the problem was grossly exaggerated, sometimes deliberately by some people who could profit immensely from the problem.

These days it is a heresy to say subprime mortgage problem wasn't a big deal. But look at the facts: according to the Fed, at the end of Q2 2008, the total mortgages outstanding (both residential and commercial) was $14.8 trillion, 10% of which can be considered subprime. Residential mortgage delinquency rate was 6.41%, and foreclosure rate 2.75% (commercial mortgage delinquency rate was much much lower, less than 1%). Even we assume that ALL subprime mortgages were worth NOTHING, the money needed to completely stop subprime problem would be only 10% of the $14.8 trillion, which would be $1.48 trillion. How much money the Fed, FDIC and the Treasury have spent to rescue the banks and financial institutions? MORE than $7 trillion so far!
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What's the problem here? We have a classic run-on-bank situation here, triggered by subprime problem, but more importantly instigated by the hedge fund community and the short sellers. There has been a concerted effort to undermine the US financial institutions and create panic among investors.

Because of the constant bashing of the US financial institutions by characters like Peter Schiff, investors got really confused, and did not see that the real scope of the subprime mortgage problem was actually very limited. Then you had those credit analysts, who paid by their hedge fund clients, kept pushing down the credit ratings on banks and financial institutions in an attempt to instigate a run-on-bank. What you got in the end was a self-fulfilling prophesy.

Financial institutions are built on trust. When trust was gone, these institutions could no longer exist.

Fannie and Freddie were great cases in point. There weren't much problem with their mortgage assets. Fannie's mortgage delinquency rate was a little above 1% and Freddie was still below 1%, before they were rescued by the government and put into conservancy. Either institutions had much exposure to subprime mortgages at all. What happened was that Fannie and Freddie's capital market dried up, because investors simply did not want to lend money to any financial institutions at the time, not even Fannie and Freddie. The securitization market was completely frozen (thanks to Hank Paulson who let Lehman go under). In that circumstance, no matter how money good the assets were, the companies could not survive. That was a typical run-on-bank!

We have to stop all those stupid doom-and-gloom talks. We have to restore people's confidence in our financial system. If you understand what I put forth above, you would agree with me that there IS NO fundamental problem with the US financial institutions! There was a crisis of confidence problem. We need to restore that confidence.

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