Monday, November 21, 2005

Four economic measures you can ignore

1. Unemployment rate
You should use the payroll number and Initial Jobless Claim, rather than the employment rate number.

2. Consumer Price Index
This is probably the worst among the four. CPI is really fraught with mis-information.

3. Current account
Foreign retained earnings is the biggest portion not captured.

4. Savings rate
Again, this is another misinformation. Education spendings, R&D spendings, brand investments, etc., are all by their nature savings, but not included in the saving rate calculation. Asset appreciation also effectively increases personal savings, but is not reflected in the saving rate number.

If we take out the mis-information created by the above four measures, we will see that the US economy is in great shape. Not recognizing this, I think people will miss out on the next big rally in the equity market.

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