An Iranian Revolution? Hardly.

Protest in Iran's capital city Tehran against the alleged voting fraud has captured people's imagination in the west. Is this the beginning of a "green revolution"? I think this is just a wishful thinking on our part. The fact of the matter is there isn't a revolution. Hardly.

1) Protests are isolated and small in scale. It has not spread beyond the elite city Tehran. Iran has over 70M in population, and 85% of them participated in the election on June 12. If there is widespread vote fraud, you would have seen a much more widespread demonstration in different places. But so far, we have only seen it in the capital city Tehran, mainly among the elites and college students. The vast rural population has not joined the protest.

2) Was there really vote fraud? According to pre-election polls, Washington Post reported that Ahmadinejad was way ahead, by a margin of 20% or 2 to 1, in most of the precincts. The election result should not be a surprise at all.

I am still puzzled by why western media were so quick to take side in this dispute over election result. I hardly see Mousavi much different from Ahmadinejad in terms of nuclear policy or policy towards Israel. The media did not take side last year in the Mexican election dispute. Why this time?

Honestly, I think Iran has the best democracy among the countries in middle east. That does not mean it would necessarily result in a friendlier foreign policy to the west.